A continuing relatively stable magnetic field (Kp at about 2-3), reasonably high solar flux levels (130, at present) and the end of the summer propagation doldrums, should all combine to make conditions like we’d all expect at the top of the sunspot cycle: 10 metres open to the east and west; 15 metres available for central European contacts; 20 metres for paths to the Low Countries and Channel Islands.
Presently, Earth is not being impacted by very fast/dense particle streams from the Sun (as it had been a few days earlier), and will not do so until after the contest. Also, the spot groups on the face of the Sun over the past week have been stable, so there will be little chance of a strike from a (Earth-directed) coronal mass ejection (CME) before or during the coming weekend. A fairly benign magnetic field will be the consequence, helping the so-so flux level generate decent propagation conditions.
Some tips for the contest
- Don’t fall into the ‘10-Metre Trap’: Although the band will be open on various paths during each of the contest days, the DXCC- and multiplier-rich regions of western and central Europe (i.e. less than 1500km from Manchester) are likely to be within the band’s skip zone. Ten’s relatively few openings, and the tendency of operators to work on the highest band that is active, may entice folks to ignore the opportunities presented by the 20m and 15m, which will be open to the continent’s west and centre, respectively.
- Although there are no QSO points gained for working your own country, the CQ WW definition of ‘country’ allows us to work all of the non-English regions of the UK (and the Crown Dependencies), and be rewarded for it. (Note that you can work G stations for multiplier credit, just not for points.)
- Make use of ‘transition times’ when attempting to contact central and eastern Europe on 20m, and Russia/Eastern Mediterranean on 20 and 15m. The first of these periods is between 0600 and 1000UTC, as the level of ionization over the continent rises from a pre-dawn minimum, to the maximum. The second period is the decline from the maximum, starting at about 1600UTC and finishing sometime after 2000.
Forecast Spreadsheet
The email contains attachments for a propagation prediction table, showing the times and bands that certain paths (from Manchester) will likely be open. It is in rough descending order with respect to longitude. Excel’s filtering function will allow you to focus on any band/region/time combinations that you want. A PDF version (which can’t be filtered) is also attached.
Good luck!
73
Evan M0TJU